Balls Numbers Las Night Agains the Raptors

Against the Toronto Raptors last night, the Wizards dashed out to a 13-bespeak lead in the first half, roughshod behind past as much as 18 early in the quaternary quarter and staged a furious comeback only to fall curt, 109-105.

The story of this game is told conspicuously in the numbers. The Wizards won the most important of the four factors that decide who wins and loses, outshooting Toronto with a 57.1% to 52.8% effective field goal per centum. In the NBA, the team with the ameliorate efg wins 78% of the fourth dimension.

Washington fifty-fifty tied in offensive rebounds, another of the factors. So why'd they lose? Turnovers and free throws. Fouls were almost even — sixteen were chosen on the Wizards and fifteen on the Raptors — but Toronto got 17 free throw attempts to Washington'southward 10.

Even so, the bigger factor was Washington's 17 turnovers to Toronto's 8. The biggest culprit for the Wizards: Bradley Beal. The Raptors had 8. The entire Wizards roster other than Aggravate had 8. Beal had a whopping ix turnovers.

Last dark tied for Beal's career high in turnovers. He previously had ix in a February iv, 2022 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. For Aggravate, the turnovers reflected his continued difficulty handling double teams and blitzes. The key against doubles is to motility the ball quickly to an open up teammate. Beal's tendency is to hold the ball, which gets him trapped and makes passing out of the double more challenging. Concluding night, it price him and the team.

Overall, the game was but kinda weird. Spencer Dinwiddie had 17 points on 10 shots, connected on 5-7 from three, had 7 rebounds and 7 assists, and posted an offensive rating (points produced per individual possessions used x 100) of 174, and had a usage charge per unit of merely 13.iii%.

Beal shot a solid 10-nineteen and had 5 rebounds and 8 assists, but undercut his production with all the turnovers.

Daniel Gafford was first-class — a team high 334 PPA, and the team was +12 with him on the floor — simply played but 12 minutes. Toronto's law-breaking sputtered when he was out there: an ortg of only 88.0.

Toronto was led by stellar play from Fred VanVleet (who should be an All-Star this twelvemonth), Scottie Barnes (who will be showtime team All-Rookie), and Chris Boucher (All-Skinny squad?). Pascal Siakam was decent as well.

Don't read as well much into this next office, but some of the plus/minus numbers were too interesting to omit. Like, the Wizards were -12 in Raul Neto'south five minutes on the flooring, -15 in Thomas Bryant's fourteen minutes, -6 with Corey Kispert, and -13 in Rui Hachimura's 20 minutes.

4 Factors

Beneath are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I've simplified them a flake. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that's more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to empathise.

Four Factors: Raptors 109 at Wizards 105

Four FACTORS	RAPTORS	WIZARDS
Iv FACTORS	RAPTORS	WIZARDS
EFG	0.528	0.571
OREB	11	11
TOV	viii	17
FTM	14	8
Stride	93
ORTG	117	112

Key Stats

Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Product Boilerplate (PPA) Game Score (very similar to the 1 I used to call Scoreboard Impact Rating). PPA is my overall product metric, which credits players for things they exercise that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defence force, fouls).

Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard in this game. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player'south total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In modest sample sizes, the numbers can go weird. But some readers prefer it, and so I'1000 including PPA scores also. Reminder: in PPA, 100 is average, college is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn't much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.3. Points produced is not the aforementioned equally points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, besides every bit sharing credit when receiving an aid.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by Wizards assistant motorbus Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the flooring and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Key Stats: Wizards

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	GmSC	+/-
WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	GmSC	+/-
Spencer Dinwiddie	39	76	17	174	xiii.iii%	272	40.7	8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	28	55	x	118	xvi.three%	144	fifteen.5	ix
Daniel Gafford	12	22	8	135	27.half dozen%	334	xiv.vii	12
Montrezl Harrell	23	44	ten	173	14.two%	164	14.two	-1
Deni Avdija	31	61	9	117	15.5%	82	9.seven	one
Rui Hachimura	20	39	xi	94	22.4%	79	6.0	-thirteen
Bradley Beal	40	77	25	95	35.2%	25	three.seven	-1
Corey Kispert	16	31	half-dozen	96	17.ane%	vii	0.iv	-6
Raul Neto	5	10	2	87	sixteen.7%	-28	0.0	-12
Thomas Bryant	xiv	27	5	85	20.ii%	-22	0.0	-fifteen
Davis Bertans	thirteen	25	ii	51	11.4%	-92	0.0	-two

Cardinal Stats: Raptors

RAPTORS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	GmSC	+/-
RAPTORS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	GmSC	+/-
Fred VanVleet	39	76	21	136	25.4%	251	33.8	8
Scottie Barnes	40	77	27	128	24.vi%	155	21.three	-5
Chris Boucher	22	43	10	154	12.half-dozen%	209	16.1	10
Pascal Siakam	41	81	21	120	22.7%	85	12.2	ane
OG Anunoby	41	81	12	80	17.3%	67	nine.half dozen	-7
Gary Trent Jr.	29	57	13	111	19.ane%	92	9.2	-1
Precious Achiuwa	19	37	5	104	x.0%	66	four.4	11
Justin Champagnie	2	4	0	254	6.4%	187	1.3	5
Yuta Watanabe	6	11	0		0.0%	61	1.two	-2

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Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/1/22/22896037/wizards-turnovers-lead-to-loss-against-toronto-raptors

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